Get out… NOW!
I am not a stock market “guru.” Nor am I guru wannabe. On April 26th, pretty much to the day on which stock market set a nearly 20 month high, I gave my outlook on markets.
Current Market Outlook
As of today’s data, I believe that the world stock markets are heading towards a steep correction in the next 3 months. My analysis is mainly based on published sentiment indicators, some anecdotes and early signs of credit market dislocations. FYI, Greece problems have not gone away. If anything, Greece’s credit problems got worse. Now, we are beginning to see a surge in CDS premiums for Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
If I were long stocks, any stocks, I would get out NOW. To be conservative, I would be in full cash.
In the interest of full disclosure, For several months I am either in full cash or short US financial institutions. I am warming up to short the market even more. Also, I have had fairly good success with trading and investing in the past. But, I also managed to a lot of foolish things and lose big.
One more time, I do not have any qualifications to make market calls. I just happen to learn a few things over 18 years of my market participation. Furthermore, I normally don’t tell people what to do in stock markets.
Having said that, I am reiterating what I said above on April 26th. If you are long in this market – GET OUT. Just close all your long positions, except Gold and silver.
There is a better than 50% chance the selling will be relentless. (Yes, I know Euro nations have just announced a $1T rescue package. More on that topic later.)